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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division winners declining and longtime strugglers rising in unison. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal year!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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